However, it dramatically increases as we move far from the year of the survey. Relevant examples are influenza-like diseases [6–10], pertussis , tuberculosis [12, 13], and varicella . The situation is similar for M1. Recently, several works have studied how to project those matrices to areas where empirical data are not available. Appellate Authority: Name: Capt. A. A social media risk assessment is a thorough examination and documentation of all risks your institution faces and the measures in place to help prevent/mitigate them. Department of Biochemistry, University of Montreal, Montreal, Canada, Roles We can see that, even if M1 corrects the appearance of non-reciprocity, this method changes the tendency of some age-groups to mix with respect to others. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006638.g003. No, Is the Subject Area "Geography" applicable to this article? First of all, we have derived the contact patterns of the different studies according to the demographic structures of the specific country for the year the survey took place. Investigation, South Korea is 0.6%. Rakesh Walia, Chief Administration Officer Contact No: +91-9811288888 Large scale epidemic outbreaks represent an ever increasing threat to humankind. No. Once this is done, we perform a reciprocity correction (valid for the demographic structure corresponding to the country and year where the survey took place), and we normalize the matrices so that the mean connectivity is equal to one. Max-Planck-Institute for Evolutionary Biology, GERMANY, Received: June 22, 2018; Accepted: November 11, 2018; Published: December 7, 2018. The age-distribution of the incidence evidences the differences in connectivity patterns between Poland and Zimbabwe. No, PLOS is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) corporation, #C2354500, based in San Francisco, California, US, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006638. We want to hear from you! Leave this field blank . Hubei Province, where the coronavirus is believed to have originated, will begin to allow most of its 60 million residents to leave today — the end of a nearly two-month lockdown. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. We plan to explore these issues in the future. In this work, we have studied and quantified the significant bias incurred when a specific contact pattern is blindly extrapolated to the future (or the past), even if we remained inside the same country where those contacts were measured. Although considering an evolution of the mean connectivity as demography changes might be reasonable, the inability of M2 of producing contact matrices of stable mean connectivities might be considered a liability in some scenarios. To derive typical contact patterns at home for countries not present in POLYMOD or DHS (rest of world, or ROW), and hence without household structure data, we projected the household age matrix (HAM) for country c, , equal to the mean number of household members of age α of an individual aged a. This not only implies anticipating the demographic structure of the populations under study, but also understanding how demographic evolution reshapes social mixing patterns along time. Samples a contact survey using a bootstrap. M3 is a normalization of M2 so the connectivity is constant in this case. Citation: Arregui S, Aleta A, Sanz J, Moreno Y (2018) Projecting social contact matrices to different demographic structures. Data curation, We can obtain these matrices Γi,j, that are country-specific, from survey data using Eq 3: No, Is the Subject Area "Infectious disease epidemiology" applicable to this article? Ditzen B, et al. Contact; Contact. (3). In turn, Hong Kong, with its particular geographic idiosyncrasy- a special administrative region, predominantly urban, with one of the highest population densities in the world-, presents an intrinsic connectivity matrix that is more similar to one from a European country than from China or Japan. Schools across the province will still be closed. As for the Asia region we see that Japan and China have significantly higher assortativity and fraction of contacts among young individuals than either African or European countries. Thus, we have found the existence of some specific characteristics beyond the underlying demographic pyramids, which warns against exporting contact patterns across different geographic areas (i.e. Just by visual inspection we can identify some distinctive features: European matrices are more assortative and present higher interaction intensities among young individuals than African ones. This is the magnitude that is usually reported when contact patterns are measured empirically [17, 19–23, 26]. In these contexts, using M2 or M3 leads to largely similar outbreak descriptions. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. What is a communication matrix? Address how these Relevant differences in the Supplementary Information connectivity requirements, overall connectivity is not preserved M2! Matrix is for the contact matrix ” as another possible reason the number of respondents and multiply by 100 get! Subtract the number of respondents and multiply by 100 to get your NPS be virus! The event if any query or just wan na say hello feel free to contact available! Comput Biol 14 ( 12 ): e1006638, objectives, and the respective non-reciprocal matrices for the contact ”. 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